西部地区财政科技支出的经济增长效应

科学技术是第一生产力，科技投入无论是在推动经济增长还是促进社会发展方面，都有着举足轻重的重要作用。通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法，研究2006年-2020年西部地区财政科技支出对区域经济增长的作用。实证结果表明，西部地区的财政科技支出与经济增长之间存在着长期的均衡关系。因此，应进一步加大及合理安排政府财政科技资金的投入，加强资金监管，提高资金使用效率，更好地促进经济发展与社会进步。     

New development: Fiscal reform in South Korea: looking back and moving forward

ABSTRACT

At first glance, it seems that South Korea’s three fiscal systems (mid-term expenditure framework, top-down budgeting, and performance management) function well. However, each fiscal system operates separately and they are inefficient because they follow past practices. This article explains what the problems are and how to overcome them.     

政府间竞争影响城市土地市场化水平的双边效应研究：基于财政竞争和引资竞争的不同作用

研究目的:本文将政府间竞争划分为财政竞争和引资竞争,比较两者对城市土地市场化水平影响的大小,分析政府间竞争与城市土地市场化水平之间的关系。研究方法:基于2003—2016年全国284个地级市的面板数据,利用双边随机前沿模型测算财政竞争和引资竞争对城市土地市场化水平的影响。研究结果:财政竞争对城市土地市场化水平具有正向效应,提高了城市土地市场化水平1.61%;引资竞争对城市土地市场化水平具有负向效应,降低了城市土地市场化水平12.51%;政府间竞争总体上降低了城市土地市场化水平10.90%。时间趋势表明,政府间竞争对城市土地市场化水平的抑制作用呈现波动下降的状态。研究结论:政府间竞争降低了城市土地市场化水平。     

New development: China renews reform of central–local fiscal relations and provides for basic national public services

China’s reform on central–local fiscal reform has slowed down in recent years. The appointment of a new finance minister experienced in local government affairs is expected to renew the reform affirmed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in late 2017. China has unprecedentedly identified a comprehensive list of 81 national basic public services as entitlements. Eighteen of them are subject to national and local standards, and co-financed by central and local governments. A new cost-sharing method for 10 of these services classifies sub-national jurisdictions into five tiers, in which the central government’s share declines from 80% to 10%. These measures, effective in 2019, aim at creating a ‘harmonious and moderately prosperous society’.     

Fiscal decentralization and government size: The role of democracy

This paper examines how the level of democracy in a country affects the relationship between fiscal decentralization and government size. We argue that political regimes, proxied by their democracy levels, are important for different decentralization theories to predict the impact of fiscal decentralization on government size. We test this argument using panel data from 76 developed and developing countries during 1972–2013. We find strong and robust evidence that fiscal decentralization is negatively associated with government size and that a higher level of democracy tends to mitigate the negative impact of fiscal decentralization. Therefore, our study contributes to the literature by offering a novel insight on mixed results regarding the relationship between fiscal decentralization and government size in the literature.     

地方财政政策逆周期调节：财政分权还是债务增发*

财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果，导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标，本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现：地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性，由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137，0113，0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高，地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是，不宜过度财政分权，应该扩大地方债发行规模，促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。     

财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应*——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理，揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式；运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据，构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调；财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性，在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展；两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致，在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。     

Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan

Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier into the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on the expenditure components. Our estimates suggest that there are crowding-in effects of government spending on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 and that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.     

地方财政压力与投资多样性——基于所得税分享改革的研究

利用企业所得税分享改革构建强度倍差模型，使用1997—2012年全国地级市数据，检验了地方财政压力对于投资多样性的影响及相关传导机制。结果表明，地方财政压力不利于投资多样性的提高；在财政压力下，地方容易形成偏向房地产行业的投资倾向。然而，不同地区地方财政压力对投资结构的影响存在异质性。经济发展水平较低的地区在财政压力下更容易降低投资多样性；而经济发展水平高的地区应对财政压力时，更倾向于通过多元化投资的方式做大税基、减轻财政压力。优化分税制结构、建立地方性税种能缓解地方财政压力，对于改变地方“房地产集中型”投资结构有一定的积极作用。     

新发展格局视野中的消费券发放问题与重构研究

2020年面对新冠肺炎疫情冲击,各地纷纷发放消费券刺激消费。本轮发放消费券的省市和规模远超以往。考察当前各地消费券的实践,其存在三方面的问题:短期刺激消费与构建发展新格局缺乏衔接、地方各自为政与顶层设计阙如、财政补贴与财政约束的张力。针对这些问题,本文从新发展格局视野提出将当前消费券重构为财政和金融融合的消费金融券,使之成为构建新发展格局中扩大内需的长期政策和重要的宏观调控工具。消费金融券的制度设计要与社会结构新特征和新趋势相契合。针对低收入群体的消费金融券,应以财政补贴为主、以重大生活项目消费的利息补贴与信用担保为辅。针对中等收入群体的消费金融券,应以利息补贴为主,通过消费金融的方式扩大消费。加大消费金融券的全国顶层设计,明确中央和地方财政支持产业的范围和力度。